The XFL continues to innovate their rulebook to make the game faster-paced, more exciting, and generally, a slightly different take on the great sport of football. While this innovation is necessary to distinguish the XFL as its own brand, the rule changes present differences in how bettors should view their totals and spreads. Let’s take a look at a few of the rules that might change the outcome of your tickets.
- Running Clock and Longer Play-Clock Means Less Points
In essence, the XFL will operate the clock in a similar way as college football. They announced that the clock will start following incomplete passes and out of bounds plays prior to the two-minute warning of either half. They also announced that the play-clock will change from 20 seconds to 30 seconds for the 2023 XFL year. While they are increasing the timeouts per half to 3, that change should have less of an impact compared to the others.
What does this mean for bettors? With more allotted time in between each play plus a running clock before the two-minute warning, expect to see low totals. Last year, the average total set for week 1 was 51.5. The books quickly realized in the following weeks they set these totals too high but look for value in the under especially early in the year.
- Tiered Extra-Point System Means Any Score is Possible
The XFL is bringing back tiered extra-points which was a staple from the 2020 year. Teams can choose from 3 different yardages to run a play from, each corresponding to a different amount of points.
- 2-yard line: 1 point
- 5-yard line: 2 points
- 10-yard line: 3 points
For bettors, this takes out all of those “important numbers” that you anchor from in the NFL betting markets. No longer can you rely on the almost-automatic extra-point (except Harrison Butker), and based on the small sample percentages from 2020, you really can’t rely on any conversions after touchdowns at all.
In week 1 of the XFL last year, teams chose to go for 1-point after 58% of TDs but only succeeding roughly 36% of the time. Teams chose to go for the 2-points after 42% of TDs and succeeded about 37% of the time. No teams went for the 3-point conversion in week 1 last year.
Look for value in the spreads, but don’t get caught up in those key numbers from the NFL.
- Overtime is Electric, But You Might Lose Your Under
Overtime is one rule change that I am looking forward to seeing implemented. Consisting of 5 back-to-back alternating plays from the opponent’s 5-yard line, this rule change brings out all of the possibilities for thrilling finish. Like a penalty shootout in soccer, you continue alternating plays until one team is mathematically the loser. And like a penalty shootout, the plays, theoretically, could go on forever. Each successful try is worth 2 points, so, again theoretically, each team can increase their score by a large margin.
In the NFL, rarely do you see more than 6 points scored in OT. But with this exciting rule change, you can expect to see at least 6 points scored in almost all of the XFL 2023 Overtimes.
While exhilarating, this does present the opportunity to absolutely ruin an under bet and bring clarity to the “life’s too short to bet the under” saying. However, in any case where 10+ points can be scored in OT, you tip your cap to the winning team.
The 2023 XFL season will surely bring out some spectacular moments and XFL Bets will be right there with you the whole way. Continue to follow XFL Bets throughout the year to find the best bets for each week and the synopsis behind each pick. Find player rankings and bold predictions as well as weekly recaps of the weekend games.